
Geoff Daily: Lafayette’s population growth isn’t sustainable
Recent data suggest growth in Lafayette Parish is primarily driven by residents leaving surrounding parishes, not net migration. That’s not sustainable.
Recent data suggest growth in Lafayette Parish is primarily driven by residents leaving surrounding parishes, not net migration. That’s not sustainable.
Tightening commercial and residential development could upend Lafayette’s economy and, in turn, crimp funding for local government.
Unemployment in the Lafayette metro area ticked up .4 points in 2022. The region also saw the sharpest decline in labor force in the state, shedding 1,700 workers.
All of Louisiana’s nine metro areas’ unemployment rates increased from November to December 2022 as well, with the state seeing its rate increase for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: The Advertiser
The latest economic output data indicates Lafayette is still in flux as it recovers from the economic impact of the pandemic. We’re gaining ground, but not as quickly as we need.
Young folks don’t necessarily want to leave Lafayette. But they say it feels impossible to stay.
Lafayette can’t count on the industries that have powered its growth in the past. We need to pivot, and we have the tools to do it.
Data from the first quarter of the year has UL economist Gary Wagner forecasting a bad situation getting worse for Louisiana’s economy:
The state’s real gross domestic product fell by 4.3% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of this year, almost three times steeper than the U.S. economy. Only five other states posted a sharper contraction.
“It’s probably hard to imagine a report that’s worse right now,” said Gary Wagner, an economist at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, who found declines in almost every state and many industries. “I think there’s a 50-50 chance we’re in a recession.”
Source: nola.com
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The betting favorite for where it will go is UL’s Research Park. That’s the path of least resistance, not the past of greatest impact.
The energy sector, in Louisiana and the world at large, is still recovering from the decline in demand from the coronavirus pandemic combined with supply collusion from foreign oil suppliers
UL’s Acadiana Business Economist Endowed Chair Gary Wagner’s quarterly economic forecast shows a local and state economy still struggling to recover in the face of increasing national headwinds.
A majority of city residents feel like Lafayette is heading in the wrong direction. But non-city residents think we’re on the right track.
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