The gist: It ain’t over yet, Lafayette voters. The City Court special election has one more chapter: a tilt between Roya Boustany and Jules Edwards.
Edwards took the edge on Election Day. But his margin was slim, just under 1,000 votes. Former Lafayette Police Chief Toby Aguillard, endorsed by the local GOP, came up well short of the frontrunners:
- Edwards – 39% (14,605)
- Boustany – 37% (13,833)
- Aguillard – 24% (8,961)
What’s the outlook? Conventional wisdom would favor Boustany, a well-funded Republican with serious name recognition. Edwards, a no-party candidate, has nevertheless won some big name support, including some Republican donors. This is a tough race to handicap.
Consider the marshal. Reggie Thomas, a no-party candidate, eked out a runoff win to become City Marshal in 2020. His opponent, Kip Judice, had run 18 points ahead on Election Day. The recipe for Thomas’ victory included a low turnout runoff with very little Republican enthusiasm.
Turnout is everything. Consider these numbers from 2020.
- Nov. 3, 2020 – 70% turnout (Judice leads with 44%)
- Dec. 5, 2020 – 20% turnout (Thomas wins by 274 votes)
- Nov. 8, 2020 – 44% turnout (Edwards leads with 39%)
- Dec. 10, 2020 – ????
Up in the air. No big-time races are up for grabs. There will be four constitutional amendments and no statewide races. This one is about who shows up.